Prediction of Felix Auger Aliassime vs Lorenzo Musetti at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai 10-08-25

• Felix Auger Aliassime has a slight edge on second serve performance, winning 48.19% of points compared to Lorenzo Musetti's 45.64%.
• In return games, Felix secures 45.50% of opponent's second serve points, while Lorenzo captures 43.58%.
• Interestingly, Lorenzo surpasses Felix on first serve returns with 25.88% versus 22.76%.
• Both players Exhibit resilient breakpoint saves, but Felix leads narrowly at 56.63% against Lorenzo's 53.33%.
• In terms of overall match wins last year, Lorenzo has been slightly more successful with a 67.24% win rate versus Felix's 63.33%.
• Felix excels on indoor hard courts with a 69% win rate, whereas Lorenzo's best performance is on clay, also at 69%.
• On direct H2H face-offs, Lorenzo edges Felix with four victories out of seven matches; both have split sets evenly at 9-9.
• When matches have gone to a deciding set, Lorenzo has prevailed more frequently, winning three out of four encounters.
• Felix has faced opponents with a lower average ranking (61.42) compared to Lorenzo's (47.91), possibly hinting at tougher competition for the latter.
• If this match reaches a deciding set, Felix holds a slight advantage, winning 63% of such sets compared to Lorenzo's 56%.

Editorial Prediction (October 6, 2025, UTC):

The statistics show Felix Auger Aliassime and Lorenzo Musetti are closely matched, making this an exciting contest to anticipate. In recent months, Felix has exhibited slightly better second serve performance and breakpoint saves, which could serve as crucial deciding factors.

However, Lorenzo's prowess in head-to-head encounters, particularly in decisive sets, suggests he may have the psychological upper hand. With his superior record against higher-ranked opponents, Lorenzo seems well-prepared to challenge Felix.

Overall, Felix’s strengths on indoor hard courts might not be enough to overturn Lorenzo’s slight edge, given their history and Lorenzo's recent successes on the court. Therefore, Lorenzo Musetti appears more likely to emerge victorious in this tightly contested match.